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Credit Reform: U.S. Needs Better Methods for Estimating Cost of Foreign Loans and Guarantees

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Report Type Reports and Testimonies
Report Date Dec. 19, 1994
Report No. NSIAD/GGD-95-31
Subject
Summary:

This report (1) evaluates the executive branch's method for calculating country risk rating and cost estimates for foreign loans and loan guarantees and provides GAO's own estimates and (2) determines the probability of default for each country. GAO also reviews the executive branch's authority to reschedule international debt owed to the U.S. government and the implementation of the law's provisions for rescheduling international debt. GAO found several weaknesses in the executive branch's method, particularly in the method it used to calculate risk premiums for higher risk countries. The main weakness was that the executive branch's method did not rely on econometric tests and measurements. GAO estimated the long-run probability of default for 170 countries. GAO's estimates of default risk ranged from 92.1 percent for Cambodia to zero percent for the highest rated countries, such as Japan, Switzerland, and Germany. GAO estimated that Russia has more than two chances out of three of defaulting on a loan, regardless of the length of the loan.

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